Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 3.312097 3.968471 4.702266 5.580661 6.600660 7.744763 9.122098
2025-06-08 2.392484 3.233727 4.274068 5.643771 7.386755 9.516620 12.300327
2025-06-15 1.798314 2.696261 3.905959 5.629340 7.991140 11.079824 15.383031
2025-06-22 1.326508 2.187233 3.440123 5.354323 8.152287 12.029719 17.729971
2025-06-29 1.056112 1.894921 3.201771 5.322556 8.596661 13.359004 20.677228
2025-07-06 0.855267 1.660363 2.995793 5.284916 8.995978 14.629580 23.627916
2025-07-13 0.765248 1.589248 3.030529 5.616732 9.981954 16.843686 28.151486
2025-07-20 0.667720 1.481695 2.980895 5.791947 10.722081 18.730267 32.317910
2025-07-27 0.601769 1.419145 2.997055 6.075085 11.660868 21.000563 37.257435
2025-08-03 0.512761 1.289843 2.865887 6.069265 12.090193 22.459127 40.980517
2025-08-10 0.417310 1.124312 2.634748 5.838976 12.083284 23.166114 43.488944
2025-08-17 0.336339 0.971616 2.401671 5.567160 11.959338 23.643127 45.619122
2025-08-24 0.287082 0.885061 2.297722 5.548473 12.327282 25.048682 49.523788
2025-08-31 0.249067 0.817876 2.225396 5.586052 12.809493 26.703480 54.002485
2025-09-07 0.213305 0.747212 2.131984 5.563101 13.163589 28.143060 58.188972
2025-09-14 0.170780 0.644413 1.940370 5.288097 12.957182 28.484463 60.344660
2025-09-21 0.146315 0.589172 1.858291 5.255699 13.263372 29.847809 64.530015
2025-09-28 0.125388 0.538845 1.779285 5.218142 13.551187 31.191728 68.762874
2025-10-05 0.119833 0.539954 1.842780 5.546149 14.698584 34.376021 76.827821
2025-10-12 0.109625 0.521258 1.846211 5.719382 15.503152 36.901137 83.723491
2025-10-19 0.103398 0.515860 1.888062 5.999383 16.585343 40.085417 92.143284
2025-10-26 0.090349 0.479140 1.827500 5.993622 16.978490 41.817145 97.678563
2025-11-02 0.074202 0.423216 1.694423 5.765869 16.800711 42.287240 100.608556